Friday 23 November 2012

Thanksgiving in US

Not a great deal to report this week, only that I have not been able to trade due to plumbers and electricians invading the house, power on and off constantly, and Thanksgiving (a day off)!  I thought however, I'd show the daily chart of the Dow.  See below.  At Point A we see what looks like a 'spring' bar.  The bar before has a very narrow spread, and has closed in the middle.  A down-bar with a narrow spread closing in the middle, at the bottom of a trading range, could be strength, and this was confirmed by the following blue up-bar.  We see we have what looks like a bullish market at the moment, but there is little 'cause' at the bottom of the chart to fuel a large up-move.  But we will wait and see.  Point B is a test bar (very strong), but it is not all that obvious.  A nice clear test would be a down-bar, narrow spread, closing middle or high, and the volume less than the previous two.  However, this bar is still a test, even though it is an up-bar.  The reason is that most of the bar is below the close of the previous bar.  This means professional money drove the price down, only to find no sellers, which means the only way is up.  Note also that the volume is less than the previous two bars' volume.  This is essential for a proper test.  It is possible that the market will go up to that top trendline and bounce off back down.  But ...... we will wait and see what happens next week.


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