Wednesday 5 December 2012

Another good day

On looking at the daily chart it appears that we are back in the general down-trend, with this week's first two days being down-days.  So my overall analysis was that the market is still weak.  The market opened and went up at first on high volume.  The first chart below is the 30 minute chart of the Dow.  You see at Point A (the market open) we have high volume on an up-bar, signifying possible selling by professional money and hence possible lower prices.  But we want to see how the market reacts to this high volume.  And at Point B we see a down-bar, so we could call both these bars a top reversal, and a sign of weakness.  However, we want to see confirmation that the market is weak.  To myself, a top reversal is not sufficient confirmation to go short (sell).

In the second chart below, which is the 10 minute chart of the Dow (which I follow and make most of trades on), we see at Point A a no demand bar.  After the initial whipsawing at the market open, and high volume (weakness) we get, at Point A, a narrower spread up-bar on low volume (volume less than the previous two bars) - this is no demand, and the confirmation we are looking for to go short.  I went short at the close of this bar - and look at the powerful reaction (on the following bar) to this principle of no demand - a rapid down-bar.  I took 20 points profit.  Another good day.



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